Escalation, Aftermath, and Diplomacy in the Iran–Israel–U.S. Conflict

Recent satellite imagery reveals the presence of heavy machinery, including excavators and cranes, operating near Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility—one of the key targets of the recent U.S. bunker-buster strikes. Images captured by Maxar Technologies on June 29 show activity concentrated around a newly constructed access road, close to the presumed impact site of the GBU-57 bombs. Additional bulldozers and trucks can be seen on the lower slopes of the mountain, as well as near the eastern section of the compound that sustained damage from an Israeli airstrike the day after the U.S. attack.

It remains unclear whether these operations are part of damage assessments and radiological sampling, or if they indicate an active reconstruction effort underway.

Meanwhile, new video footage from Evin Prison has surfaced, showing widespread destruction following Israeli airstrikes. Iranian judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir confirmed that the death toll from the Evin strike has risen to 79, including prison staff, visitors, detainees, and nearby residents.

The judiciary further reported that 935 people have now been identified as fatalities of Israeli strikes across Iran, among them 38 children and 102 women, some of whom were pregnant.

Amid the ongoing crisis, Iran has demanded firm guarantees from the United States as a precondition for resuming nuclear negotiations—most notably, a pledge that its territory will not be targeted again during any future talks. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has denied any negotiations are underway and dismissed reports that his administration considered unfreezing $30 billion in Iranian assets for civilian nuclear purposes.

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), acknowledged severe damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but emphasized that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months. He stated that “some centrifuge cascades could be operational again in a few months or less,” pointing to the resilience of Iran’s nuclear program despite recent setbacks.

In response to a June 12 IAEA resolution accusing Iran of violating its nuclear commitments, Tehran suspended its cooperation with the agency. Iranian officials accused Western powers of using the resolution as a pretext for the coordinated Israeli and American strikes. The Iranian Parliament subsequently passed a law mandating that any future cooperation with the IAEA be subject to approval by the Supreme National Security Council.

Tensions escalated further after Kayhan, a hardline Iranian newspaper whose editor is appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, labeled Grossi a “Mossad agent” and called for his arrest and execution. The statement drew swift condemnation from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK, who reiterated their support for the IAEA and demanded that Iran guarantee the safety of its personnel.

In a CBS interview, Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeed Iravani condemned Kayhan for threatening Mr Grossi. He also said Tehran has received no official proposals for negotiations and warned that diplomacy under threat or coercion is not acceptable. He stated, “Any effort to impose conditions on Iran will close the door to diplomacy.”

Despite occasional diplomatic contact—such as a phone call between Iranian Parliament Speaker Masoud Pezeshkian and his French counterpart—Tehran maintains that no date has been set for formal talks. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei harshly criticized Germany and France’s public support for Israel’s actions, calling their rhetoric “colonial” and “morally bankrupt.”

Baghaei singled out German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s statement that Israel had “done the dirty work for all of us,” comparing it to Nazi-era logic. He further claimed that the IAEA’s recent reporting was used to justify “military aggression by the Zionist regime and the United States.”

Trump reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely destroyed” and warned that if intelligence showed renewed enrichment, the U.S. would “definitely” consider another military strike.

The fate of an estimated 408 kilograms of highly enriched uranium allegedly stored inside Fordow remains uncertain. While Iran claims it protected the material, Grossi noted the agency “cannot confirm” whether it was destroyed, moved, or remains intact.

The Argentine government, Grossi’s home country, joined the European Union in denouncing the threats against him, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed America’s commitment to the IAEA’s mission.

In an X post, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed Grossi’s request to inspect bombed sites as “meaningless and possibly malicious”, and said cooperation with the IAEA would follow new Iranian legislation.

In a revealing personal account, former Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani detailed how the war unfolded not only militarily, but psychologically and diplomatically. He disclosed that, shortly after the war began, he received a threatening phone call warning him to leave Tehran within 12 hours or face the same fate as slain generals Bagheri and Rashid. Larijani refused, calling the threat part of a coordinated campaign to destabilize Iran’s leadership.

Previously The Washington Post has obtained an audio recording in which an Israeli intelligence officer contacted an Iranian commander and issued a chilling warning:

“I’m telling you right now—you have 12 hours to escape with your wife and children. Otherwise, you’re on our list… We are closer to you than your jugular vein. Burn that into your mind. God protect you.”

According to the report, the Mossad officer also instructed the senior IRGC commander to record a video denouncing the Iranian government and send it via Telegram.

The Washington Post added that similar messages were delivered to more than 20 senior Iranian military, intelligence, and nuclear officials. Some of the messages were conveyed directly to the individuals, others to their spouses, and in some cases, threatening notes were left at their homes.

A source familiar with the operation told the paper that these calls were “not just warnings,” but the beginning of conversations with some senior Iranian officials.

The Washington Post described the campaign as part of a broader Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic, which began last week, and noted that the primary goal was to instill fear among mid- and lower-tier commanders in Iran’s security establishment.

Larijani also laid out how the rhetoric of the United States and Israel shifted dramatically—from early calls for Iran’s total surrender to last-minute appeals for a ceasefire. He argued that this was due to Iran’s unexpected resilience: its missile strikes crippled Israeli infrastructure, public unity surged, and international opinion turned against Israeli aggression. He stated: “They entered the war believing the Islamic Republic would collapse quickly. But when they saw the structure held, the leadership endured, and the people stood firm, they sought a ceasefire to exit the crisis with minimal loss.”

He also recounted that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly claimed that “targeting the Iranian Supreme Leader would not escalate tensions, but rather end the conflict.” Larijani interpreted this as a clear intent to assassinate Iran’s top leader. That same day, an attack targeted Iran’s Supreme National Security Council building in what Larijani described as a plan to eliminate key figures including the president, parliament speaker, and judiciary head, and collapse the government. “This plot,” he said, “ultimately failed.”

He summarized: “Trump said: ‘Iran will not win this war.’ But Netanyahu went even further, claiming that assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader would bring peace. This clearly meant the assassination had entered their war agenda.” According to Larijani, the swift replacement of fallen commanders and firm leadership from the Supreme Leader not only preserved national stability but shifted the momentum of the war in Iran’s favor.

This evolving narrative of military escalation, strategic miscalculation, and eventual de-escalation underscores not only the perils of modern conflict but also the central role of psychological warfare and media narratives in shaping public perception and political outcomes.

Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains unstable and unresolved. The U.S. claims that the Iranian nuclear threat has been neutralized, while Iran insists on its right to uranium enrichment under international law. Rafael Grossi has reiterated that diplomacy is the only viable solution, warning that military action cannot offer lasting peace. However, Iran has made it clear that it will not return to negotiations without concrete guarantees—especially assurances against future attacks. Without such terms, the current calm may be short-lived, and the region risks sliding back into conflict.