Harsh Trump Threats Overshadow Possible Diplomatic Progress through Backchannels
Iran has signaled its readiness to engage in indirect negotiations with the United States through Oman, even as rhetoric and regional tensions escalate. The message was a response to Donald Trump’s letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, which was reportedly a mix of threats and signaling that Iran could benefit from negotiations.
Amid these exchanges, U.S. forces have apparently increased their military presence near Iran, potentially aiming to exert more pressure on Tehran to make concessions. B-2 stealth bombers – deemed a critical weapons system to deliver America’s largest bunker busters in a potential military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear program – have been spotted at an American base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The location is reportedly in the range of Iran, the broader Middle East and South Asia.
President Trump has also made several not-so-subtle threats to Iran, including stating “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing.” He continued, “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” Trump also threatened additional sanctions or tariff pressure to induce negotiations, stating “But there’s a chance that if they don’t make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago.”
In a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, described Trump’s recent statements as reckless and hostile, calling them a gross violation of international law and the fundamental principles of the UN Charter. The letter warns that any attack by the United States—or its allies such as Israel—on Iran’s sovereignty or national interests will be met with immediate and resolute retaliation. The Iranian government has also lodged a formal protest with the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, who represents U.S. interests in Iran.
General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, commented that U.S. forces in the region are sitting in a “glass room,” referring to the American bases and thousands of personnel stationed around Iran. He suggested that those who are vulnerable should refrain from provocative actions. Despite these pointed statements, Iranian officials have also acknowledged a window for diplomacy, believing that a more discreet form of engagement could help prevent further escalation.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, addressed the issue during Eid al-Fitr prayers, stating that while the possibility of external military action seems low, any hostile move would be met with a firm and crushing blow. On potential internal unrest, he noted that the Iranian people themselves would confront any attempts to stir disorder, just as they have in the past. The remarks are notable, coming amid threatening external rhetoric and after hundreds of Iranian protesters have been killed in bloody crackdowns, including the Woman, Life, Freedom movement in 2022.
Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, remarked that if a “wrong move” is made regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, producing an atomic bomb would become a “secondary justification.” While he reiterated that Iran is not currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, he reiterated that Iran would be forced to do so if its nuclear program is attacked: “If the United States or Israel bombs Iran on the pretext of its nuclear program, Iran will have no choice but to move toward producing a nuclear bomb, as the people will push us in that direction.”
This assessment mirrors the recently-published intelligence assessment from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, which indicated that the Supreme Leader halted Iran’s nuclear weapons program in 2003 and has not allowed it to resume. Larijani underscored that indirect negotiations could be a more effective way to understand each side’s demands and potential concessions.
Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Tuesday (April 1) condemned what he referred to as President Trump’s “ultimatum” to Iran, calling it “catastrophic.” Speaking to the Russian publication International Affairs, he stated that Russia considers such threats and ultimatums to be inappropriate ways to force American will onto Iran.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also announced the seizure of two foreign oil tankers in the middle of the Persian Gulf. According to the IRGC’s Second Naval Zone public relations office, the ships—identified as “Star 1” and “Wenteg”—were at the center of a fuel-smuggling network. Carrying over three million liters of illicit diesel fuel and operated by 25 crew members, these tankers were apprehended by forces from the Imam Hassan Mojtaba Second Naval Zone in Bushehr. They have been transferred to a petroleum dock in Bushehr under a judicial order, where the contraband diesel will be confiscated. The IRGC report did not specify the tankers’ nationality. This action comes after reports emerged last week that the US may have seized some Iranian tankers in the Persian Gulf.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s President, confirmed that Ayatollah Khamenei personally responded to a recent letter from Donald Trump, rejecting direct talks but allowing indirect diplomacy to continue. According to Israel Hayom, Steve Witkoff’s recent television interview with Tucker Carlson – in which he stated that the U.S. seeks to verify that Iran won’t weaponize its nuclear program – was partially influential in shaping Khamenei’s conditional acceptance of indirect negotiations.
President Donald Trump appears to favor a strategy of applying maximum pressure and using forceful rhetoric before shifting toward diplomacy—a tactic he previously employed with North Korea in his first term. If that’s the case, recent aggressive rhetoric could be interpreted as a negotiating tactic – yet it is bound to elicit similar harsh rhetoric from Iran. However, given the complex nature of Iran’s case and the powerful stakeholders involved, especially Israel, there is a considerable risk that the situation could spiral out of control for both sides.
Against this backdrop, the possibility of a negotiated settlement—albeit through indirect channels—has perhaps inched closer to reality. Observers note that the standoff could grow more dangerous if inflammatory rhetoric or small-scale military encounters spiral out of control. For now, Iran emphasizes that it does not seek war but will respond resolutely to any aggression, while U.S. officials maintain that all options, including military action, are under consideration if diplomacy fails.