Iran is confronting an escalating environmental disaster, marked by acute water shortages, widespread land subsidence, and climate-induced displacement that now threaten the habitability of major regions and the livelihoods of millions. Experts warn that the crisis, if left unaddressed, could transform into one of the gravest national emergencies in the country’s modern history.
Ahad Vazifeh, head of the National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management, has warned of the increasing vulnerability of Iran’s key historical and urban centers—including Tehran, Isfahan, Yazd, Kerman, Qom, and Kashan—many of which sit on the edge or in the heart of the country’s arid central desert. These cities, with their dense populations and strategic importance, are suffering from severe drought, declining precipitation, over-extraction of groundwater, and land subsidence. For example, the average annual rainfall in Yazd is less than 100 millimeters, compared to a national average of 235 mm and nearly 1,000 mm in Gilan Province.
Overuse of water has led to soil degradation, collapsing aquifers, and a dangerously unstable geological foundation beneath urban centers. Satellite imagery of Lake Urmia has intensified fears that the lake will completely dry up by the end of the current summer. Reports from Iranian media note that 800,000 climate migrants have already been displaced within the country, particularly to northern provinces with more favorable climates. Of this population, approximately 10,000 families are reported to have fled Zabol, located in the severely drought-affected province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Experts warn that by the year 1420 (2041–2042 CE), 50 to 70 million Iranians—over half of the population—will be exposed to at least one extreme climate event annually, with many facing forced migration.
Compounding the issue is the rapidly deteriorating state of the country’s dams. According to Somayeh Rafiei, a member of Iran’s Parliament and head of the Environment and Agriculture Commission, 44 major dams are now in “critical” condition. Inflows to reservoirs have decreased by 37% compared to last year. The volume of water stored in dams is also down 18% year-over-year and 15% below the five-year average. In Tehran Province, dam capacity is at just 24%, posing major risks to water availability and power production, as hydropower generation is being severely limited.
Rafiei has also reported that 66% of Iran’s wetlands have turned into dust storm zones, amplifying air pollution and contributing to the loss of agricultural land.
The overuse of underground water sources is equally alarming. Approximately 60% of Iran’s water comes from groundwater reserves, yet current extraction rates are three times faster than the natural recharge rate. Over 30 provinces are experiencing land subsidence caused by unsupervised and excessive groundwater withdrawal. The phenomenon is no longer localized or temporary—it has become a nationwide, irreversible pattern. Tehran, Isfahan, Kerman, Fars, and Razavi Khorasan are among the hardest-hit provinces, with experts warning that urban infrastructure, transportation networks, and even lives are now at risk.
Iran uses nearly 90% of its water for agriculture, often in inefficient and outdated systems. This disproportionate usage is largely centered in areas that house 71% of the population and account for 70% of national water demand. Yet these same areas are among the most water-scarce and environmentally stressed, highlighting a deep imbalance in the country’s development strategy.
Meanwhile, the strain of environmental collapse is driving waves of internal migration. According to Iran’s Migration Observatory, between 1986 and 2016, the country recorded an average of one million internal migrants per year. In the five-year span from 2011 to 2016 alone, more than 4.3 million people relocated, often from rural or peripheral regions affected by drought and desertification to central cities. This unplanned migration is pushing additional population pressure on urban areas that are themselves facing critical water shortages and infrastructural limitations.
Environmental researchers and national agencies are now publicly declaring that the water crisis in Iran has become a direct threat to national security. Experts are urging the Iranian government to immediately halt unsustainable water extraction, invest in modern irrigation and urban water systems, shift agricultural practices, and rethink regional development policies. These warnings, however, have been circulating for years without serious policy response.
Unless swift and coordinated action is taken, Iran may face a future of uninhabitable cities, mass displacement, agricultural collapse, and growing unrest—all driven by the unchecked convergence of climate change, resource mismanagement, and political inaction.