Israel has attacked Iran – an unprovoked and illegal attack under international law that throws kerosene on the nuclear crisis and risks embroiling the U.S. in a MAJOR military conflict that the President has sought to avoid.
Here’s what we know about the strikes as reports continue to come in from Iran:
- Israel appears to have struck inside Tehran, one of the world’s most populous cities, with social media reports showing damage to apartment buildings and streets. Innocent civilians and bystanders – including children – appear to be among those killed and injured.
- Many of these strikes may have been targeted against key political, military and scientific figures. Sme sources indicate that very senior figures of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Armed Forces have been killed, including IRGC Chief Hossein Salami.
- Initial reports indicate Israel has struck the Natanz enrichment facility and caused at least some damage. This facility is among the softer targets among Iran’s nuclear facilities as it is not deeply buried.
- There are no indications that Israel targeted the Fordow enrichment facility, which is deeply buried and could likely only be struck with American military hardware – B-2 bombers and massive earth penetrators. Iran has moved much of its highest-level enriched uranium to this facility.
- Israel has indicated this operation – likely conducted with American weaponry and military hardware – will continue indefinitely until the “threat” to Israel is “removed.”
What can we expect next?
- Iran is very likely to unleash a barrage of missiles on Israel, the United States and other perceived enemy targets in the region. While the U.S. has asserted it was not involved and should not be targeted in any reprisals, it is far from clear that Iran will buy this story given the close security links between each nation including on Iran policy.
- U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff recently told Senators Iran maintains thousands of missiles and can overwhelm Israeli defenses, risking a “mass casualty” event.
- While it is not officially canceled, it is safe to say there will not be a sixth round to the U.S.-Iran negotiations in the near term, which were originally scheduled for this weekend. Absent a robust effort by President Trump to end the attack and force Israel to stand down, it is very difficult to see the negotiation process being revived in any recognizable form. However, Trump’s initial remarks after the strikes reflect an expectation that Iran to continue the negotiation under active bombardment. This is highly unlikely.
- U.S. intelligence and nonproliferation experts do not believe strikes can eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Public assessments just a few weeks ago indicated Israeli strikes on Iran could set Iran’s program back by just weeks or maybe months.
- Much of Iran’s infrastructure could remain intact, allowing Iran to begin to enrich to weapons grade or move uranium and centrifuges to secure, covert facilities. Iran could move to expel IAEA inspectors, ensuring an end to real time monitoring of what Iran is doing on its nuclear program, and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
What should policymakers say?
Netanyahu’s decision to strike Iran is a disastrous mistake – and it is incumbent on Trump to keep America out of the war and end it as soon as possible.
- There is NO Congressional, let alone United Nations, authorizations for the use of force against Iran. Joining the war would be illegal.
- Israel’s strikes were unprompted and not in response to any real threat. Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon per the latest Department of National Intelligence report, nor threatening to attack Israel or anyone else.
- There is no compelling American interest in going to war against Iran, and many reasons to stay out of one. Trump acknowledged Americans are in harm’s way by pulling some personnel out of the region in anticipation of Iran’s possible retaliation to strikes. Yet, many remain on the ground and could soon be in the crosshairs because of this rash decision.
- The American people do not want another open-ended war of choice that leads to young Americans killed and their future being spent on bombs in the Middle East.
- Trump must still lead with diplomacy – not to resolve the nuclear crisis, now, but to stop the killing and preserve the possibility of finding a diplomatic offramp.