Washington, DC – The latest puncture of the Iran-Israel-U.S. ceasefire was the starkest reminder yet of the precarity of the de-escalation from total war. This latest round of hostilities has one chief author: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who provocatively bombed the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh in southern Beirut despite sharp warnings from Iran and President Trump. Viewing this as a clear and major violation of the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, Iran directly fired on Israel with multiple missile volleys for the first time in two months, triggering strikes from Israel inside multiple cities in Iran and another wave of retaliatory strikes from Iran and fire from the Houthis in Yemen. For now, a renewal of the ceasefire may hold that returns to the status quo ante, with Iran and Israel abstaining from direct fire. Yet it is far from clear how long this could hold.
“This latest round of hostilities is a wake-up call to President Trump that failing to make the tough concessions for peace will guarantee the costs of war, including regional chaos, threats of the U.S. being pulled into a war it wants out of and high costs for American consumers,” said Jamal Abdi, President of the National Iranian American Council. “Netanyahu’s government in Israel is doing everything it can to spoil Trump’s negotiations with Iran and the possibility of peace, including violating the ceasefire in Lebanon and ratcheting up the escalation ladder to trigger an Iranian response,” he continued.
Far from fold quickly, Iran’s climb up the escalation ladder two months into a ceasefire is a sign that Iran is prepared for more war, and isn’t about to cave on its bottom lines. Still, the U.S. has significant leverage to convince Iran to make a deal: sanctions relief is urgently necessary for the Iranian government to stop the slide of its beleaguered economy and begin to rebuild after the war. Trading that leverage in could secure significant concessions, including an end to the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“There won’t be a deal if Trump can’t tell his supposed junior partner Benjamin Netanyahu ‘No’ and make it stick, much less put significant sanctions relief on the table over his objections,” said Abdi. “A deal is still possible, but the net effect of Israel ignoring Trump and choosing escalation is reduced expectations in Tehran that Washington will ever prioritize getting to the diplomatic finish line. If Trump remains mired in diplomatic doldrums, these exchanges of fire are likely to grow more frequent until there is a full breakdown.”
The Senate may take another vote this week on a resolution to end the war, building off momentum of the House of Representatives passing a measure directing President Trump to end hostilities with Iran. That measure may pass narrowly or require a tie-breaker vote from Vice President JD Vance to defeat it.
###