WASHINGTON D.C. – With U.S. personnel being evacuated across the Middle East in anticipation of a possible Israeli attack on Iran, the threat of war looms large, but so does the possibility that this is yet another high-stakes bluff.
“Forces for war have been trying to sabotage Trump’s efforts to secure a verifiable nuclear peace agreement with Iran since he first promised to do so on the campaign trail,” said NIAC President Jamal Abdi. “Whether it is the whisper campaign they’ve orchestrated against Witkoff or demands that the U.S. adopt a deliberately impossible ‘zero-enrichment’ negotiating position, they’ve helped bring us to the brink of no return and the President must stand up to them before we get dragged into a new forever war that will make the Iraq invasion look like a cakewalk.”
It is important to remember that a war with Iran would be illegal. There is no United Nations authorization, and no approval from Congress to initiate hostilities. Nor is there any imminent threat: Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and it is certainly not threatening to use one, or attack anyone unprompted.
If military action were taken, it would be catastrophic.
President Trump has already acknowledged that Americans are in harm’s way by ordering regional evacuations in anticipation of potential U.S. strikes. And Iran is not Iraq in 2003. Iran has the largest missile program in the Middle East and is capable of targeting both U.S. and Israeli targets as well as regional oil infrastructure. The consequences of war would be severe and immediate.
A war would open Pandora’s box:
- Thousands of people are likely to be killed within days;
- Iran would expel IAEA inspectors;
- Iran’s nuclear program would go underground and likely succeed in producing a nuclear weapon;
- The resulting conflict would fuel calls for more bombings, more escalation, and deeper U.S. military entanglement;
- Even Israel’s nuclear facilities could become targets. U.S. officials believe Iran can overwhelm Israeli missile defenses and produce a “mass casualty” event.
There is still time to prevent this. Only diplomacy has succeeded in limiting Iran’s nuclear activities, without a single shot fired or drop of blood spilled. And fortunately, Trump is still at the negotiating table – for now. But if the U.S. commits to Netanyahu’s poison pill ultimatum focused on enrichment rather than President Trump’s goal of preventing a nuclear armed Iran and avoiding a war, this process may be doomed.
Trump gained support by taking the pro-peace path. He must hold the line and see negotiations through. NIAC calls on the administration to avoid catastrophic missteps and pursue serious, pragmatic diplomacy before lives are lost and a regional war is unleashed.