Washington, DC – NIAC President Jamal Abdi issued the following statement following Israel’s military strikes against targets in Iran:
Last night, Israel launched an attack against Iran, with strikes hitting military targets inside Iran. At least four military personnel have been reported killed, which could increase with time.
Iran’s initial reaction has been to largely downplay the attack, signaling that Israel’s strike was largely deflected and ineffective. This preserves the option for Iran to take the off-ramp and not respond, avoiding a wider war for now, regardless of the ultimate severity of the damage inflicted.
While the worst case scenarios may be avoided for now, the underlying conflict and dangers remain. Israel and Iran, with the U.S. tightly involved, have walked to the edge of the abyss of war but have not leapt in. Thus, the parties hang on the brink, and open war could still be ignited in the days and months to come.
A full-blown war would be a disaster, spreading violence and instability across the entire Middle East. American soldiers would be under imminent threat at bases near Iran’s borders, along with citizens in Iran, Israel and many countries in between. War would also be devastating to the human rights and democracy movement in Iran, harshening the internal security environment in Iran and making it harder for activists to organize and demand change.
Direct clashes between Israel and Iran were not inevitable but they became predictable thanks to Biden’s blank check for Israel’s war in Gaza and its expansion into Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu has long desired a war with Iran that pulls in the United States and he is still doing a great deal to deliver it. There is no option to “escalate to de-escalate” in Iran, just as there was no serious option to “escalate to de-escalate” in Lebanon and Gaza.
The only path away from regional war is through a ceasefire that ends the killing in Gaza and Lebanon and prevents its expansion to Iran. President Biden and the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, have said this is their goal but they have not utilized the necessary leverage to achieve it. Unless and until they do so, this latest exchange of fire between Israel and Iran will be a reprieve from total war but not a decisive step away from the brink. We urge the Biden administration to redouble its efforts for a ceasefire before it is too late.
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