“Trump is a businessman and a deal-maker.” This phrase has been repeated many times, and many pro-diplomacy analysts believe that this very trait of the U.S. president could offer practical strategies for achieving results in upcoming negotiations. In line with this sentiment, it appears that Iran is preparing to use its economy as leverage in future talks with the United States.
Iran’s economy is currently in a highly fragile state, but after years of sanctions, it also presents untapped potential for investment. After the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), European companies lined up to invest in Iran. However, it quickly became clear that the agreement lacked the necessary stability to offer a secure foundation for sustained foreign investment. One of the often-cited reasons for the deal’s failure was the absence of the U.S. from Iran’s investment market. Former Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently noted that U.S. primary sanctions prevented American companies from entering the Iranian economy even after the JCPOA was signed.
This time, Iran seems prepared to play this economic card during negotiations. Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian politician and close associate of Supreme Leader Khamenei, supported this view in recent remarks: “Mr. Trump is a talented individual who has managed to become wealthy through business. The U.S. can define mutual economic interests with Iran.” He also warned: “Trump says he seeks peace, so he should not talk of threats and war. Any attack on Iran will have consequences. We have experienced military commanders.” These statements suggest that Iran is ready for a deal and willing to take steps toward an agreement, or prepare for confrontation.
Before Trump shocked both Iran and Netanyahu with his announcement of direct talks, and before Araghchi confirmed the Oman negotiations, it seemed that Iran had missed the opportunity to make statements like Larijani’s, especially in the face of Trump’s threatening rhetoric.
But now the situation has changed. With talks set to commence, there’s renewed hope that Trump’s deal-making mindset can be engaged despite his threats – though Iranian leaders have emphasized that they do not respond to such past threats or any future threats from President Trump as well.
The key question, however, is this: What would the economic annex of a potential deal look like? A thought-provoking tweet from Mohammad Hossein Khoshvaght – a family member of the Supreme Leader – may offer a hint. He wrote: “What would your reaction be if you learned that the Iranian government had outlined nearly $1 trillion worth of projects and declared that American investment in these projects would be permitted?” Additionally, Abdollah Rahimlou, a professor of international economics, responded: “No agreement will be sustainable without an economic component. This would be a wise move.”
Foreign policy analyst Amir Chahaki offered a cautionary perspective: “If the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy continues to focus on regional conflicts with Israel and maintains ‘the destruction of Israel’ as a central slogan without a cease in hostilities, then it will have no meaningful impact on the negotiations.” He added that “The West had invested over a trillion dollars in Russia—major global companies from McDonald’s to Volkswagen and international banks. Yet within three months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all of them pulled out.”
This emphasis on economic leverage was also echoed by Abbas Araghchi in his recent op-ed in The Washington Post, where he emphasized that Iran’s vast investment potential could offer the U.S. a viable path toward mutually beneficial cooperation—if sanctions are lifted and channels of engagement are restored. Araghchi underlined that a sustainable agreement must include meaningful economic incentives and access to Iran’s investment market, reinforcing Tehran’s intent to put economic opportunity at the center of any future deal.